EUR/USD Firms as Dollar Weakens on Dovish Fed Bets; ECB in Focus

Key Takeaways:

*Dollar pressured as Fed rate cut bets weigh on sentiment

*EUR/USD breaks above 1.1750 amid broad USD softness

*ECB rate decision in focus; Lagarde hints policy nearing terminal level

Market Summary:

GThe euro extended gains against the dollar, underpinned by continued weakness in the greenback as markets priced in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut later this year. The USD Index hovered near 97.50 after a two-day drop, reflecting reduced haven demand as economic fears eased on news of a U.S.-Japan trade agreement.

US President Donald Trump also noted the EU would begin a fresh round of trade talks in Washington, which could support the dollar if an agreement is reached. However, absent concrete details, traders remain cautious, particularly amid ongoing risk-on sentiment evident in rising equity futures.

Attention now shifts to the ECB policy announcement due later today. While no change is expected, ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently signaled the rate cycle is approaching its end. Markets anticipate the deposit rate to hold at 2.00%, with the euro supported by fading expectations of further easing.

Technical Analysis 

EUR/USD, H4

EUR/USD has extended its bullish run, decisively breaching the 1.1750 resistance zone—a level that previously acted as a significant supply barrier. The breakout confirms bullish momentum in the short term, supported by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next key upside target lies at 1.1810, where historical selling interest could emerge. A successful close above this level would open the path toward the next resistance at 1.1880, reinforcing the bullish structure.

However, momentum indicators suggest potential exhaustion. The RSI is approaching overbought territory at 69, signaling that bulls may be due for a breather. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is flattening near its peak, hinting at slowing bullish momentum and the possibility of consolidation or a short-term correction.

Should EUR/USD fail to sustain above 1.1750, it could trigger profit-taking, with downside support seen at 1.1695—a level aligned with recent swing lows and the 50-period moving average. Maintaining price action above this level keeps the medium-term bias tilted to the upside.

Resistance Levels: 1.1810, 1.1880

Support Levels: 1.1750, 1.1695