The New Zealand dollar has declined and cannot recover due to China’s ongoing struggles in stimulating its economy.

The Chinese stock market remains in a downward trend, primarily influenced by challenges within the property sector and limited Chinese economic stimulus efforts. The recent bullish oil prices have also hindered the much-worried Chinese economy, as the hope for China oil demand is fading. Amidst these developments, the New Zealand dollar has experienced a sustained decline against the US dollar for ten consecutive days. This persistent slide can be attributed to China’s ongoing struggles in stimulating its economy, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar’s ability to recover. Simultaneously, the US long-term bond yields have reached their highest point since 2007. This ascent occurs just ahead of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Meanwhile, the dollar index remains steady, poised for potential movement following Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech scheduled for Thursday.

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Les paris actuels sur la hausse des taux d'intérêt se poursuivent 20 septembre Décision de la Fed sur les taux d'intérêt: 

Source : Outil Fedwatch du CME

0 bps (86%) VS 25 bps (14%)   

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Aperçu du marché

Calendrier économique

Mouvements du marché

INDICE_DOLLAR, H4

The US dollar’s rally took a breather, ending its impressive five-week climb. Investors locked in profits as the currency hit key resistance levels ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Recent robust economic indicators and hawkish signals from the FOMC minutes had fuelled optimism about sustained higher interest rates, yet uncertainty looms before the pivotal meeting. All eyes now turn to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for guidance on the next market moves.

L'indice du dollar se négocie à la baisse suite au retracement précédent du niveau de résistance. Le MACD a illustré une dynamique baissière croissante, tandis que le RSI est à 50, ce qui suggère que l'indice pourrait prolonger ses pertes depuis que le RSI s'est fortement replié à partir du territoire de surachat.

Niveau de résistance : 103,60, 104,20

Niveau de support : 102.75, 102.15

XAU/USD, H4

A recent crisis in China’s economy prompted wary investors to seek refuge in gold. Despite the People’s Bank of China trimming its one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points, scepticism persists. The move is seen as insufficient to stabilise China’s economic momentum. With eyes firmly fixed on China’s uncertain economic landscape, gold’s safe-haven allure remains strong.

Les prix de l'or se négocient à la hausse alors qu'ils sont actuellement proches du niveau de résistance. Le MACD a illustré une dynamique haussière croissante, tandis que le RSI est à 49, ce qui suggère que le produit de base pourrait étendre ses gains après la rupture puisque le RSI a rebondi brusquement à partir du territoire survendu.

Niveau de résistance : 1900,00, 1930,00

Niveau de support : 1880.00, 1860.00

EUR/USD，H4

The euro has successfully held its support level and is presently trading above 1.0900 against the US dollar. Concurrently, the dollar index maintains its position, exhibiting a slight softening as it approaches the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Market participants eagerly await Jerome Powell’s speech during the event, aiming to glean insights into the Federal Reserve’s prospective monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bonds yield has surged, reaching levels unseen since 2007. This upsurge is anticipated to bolster the dollar’s strength, aligning with the trajectory of the elevated Treasury yields.

La paire a gagné plus de 0,2% depuis son niveau de support à court terme à 1,0860. Le RSI a rebondi depuis la zone inférieure tandis que le MACD s'est croisé au plus bas, suggérant un signal d'inversion de tendance pour la paire. 

Niveau de résistance : 1,0924, 1,0990

Niveau de support : 1.0848, 1.0760

GBP/USD，H4

The interest rate gap between the United States and the United Kingdom has diminished, mainly due to expectations of ongoing rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) due to the country’s elevated inflation rates. Furthermore, the British Pound (Sterling) has capitalised on a weakened US dollar in the previous session, as investors shifted their attention towards the equity market, particularly noting the positive performance of certain technology stocks. However, the recent surge in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bonds, reaching levels not observed since 2007, suggests that the US dollar is likely to strengthen in the near future.

La livre sterling a dépassé son niveau de résistance à la baisse, ce qui suggère la formation d'une dynamique haussière. Ce point de vue est également soutenu par les indicateurs : le RSI se rapproche de la zone de surachat, tandis que le MACD se situe au-dessus de la ligne de zéro. 

Niveau de résistance : 1,2780, 1,2870

Niveau de support : 1.2640, 1.2550

NZD/USD，H4

The Kiwi, has recently experienced a 10-day consecutive decline against the dollar. This decline has amounted to over a 7% drop since its peak in mid-July. The Kiwi’s inability to gain strength can be attributed to China’s sluggish economic recovery and ongoing economic challenges. Given that China holds a significant role as New Zealand’s largest trading partner, its struggles have impacted the Kiwi’s upward momentum. Anticipation surrounds New Zealand’s upcoming release of retail sales data scheduled for tomorrow. The consensus is that this data will show a contraction compared to the previous reading. This situation has led investors to speculate that the RBNZ might opt to continue the current interest rate pause. As a result of these factors, the Kiwi is facing a weakened position.

Le kiwi a légèrement rebondi face au dollar. Le RSI s'est rapproché de la zone de surachat tandis que le MACD se rapproche également de la ligne de zéro par le bas, ce qui suggère un renversement de tendance. 

Niveau de résistance : 0,5980, 0,6050

Niveau de support : 0.5900, 0.5800

Nasdaq , H4

The Nasdaq advanced as Nvidia surged, buoyed by investor optimism ahead of its upcoming earnings report. Amidst a backdrop of strategic dip-buying spurred by a slight retracement in the US equity market the previous week, Nvidia outperformed, climbing 8.5%. The semiconductor leader led gains within the sector, propelled by HSBC’s upward revision of its price target for the stock to $780—a figure now the second highest on Wall Street.

Le Nasdaq se négocie à la hausse suite au rebond précédent depuis le niveau de support. Le MACD a montré une diminution de la dynamique baissière, tandis que le RSI est à 44, ce qui suggère que l'indice pourrait prolonger ses gains depuis que le RSI a rebondi brusquement à partir d'un territoire survendu. . 

Niveau de résistance : 15315.00, 15935.00

Niveau de support : 14330.00, 13645.00

AUD/USD, H4

Fragile risk sentiment continued to cast a shadow over global markets, driven by concerns about China’s property market. This unease weighed on high-risk assets like the Australian dollar, which faced further losses. With Australia looking to Chinese recovery for cues, market participants eagerly await economic updates from China for potential signals.

La paire AUD/USD se négocie à la baisse tout en testant actuellement le niveau de support. Cependant, le MACD a illustré une dynamique haussière croissante, tandis que le RSI est à 45, ce qui suggère que la paire pourrait subir une correction technique puisque le RSI a rebondi brusquement depuis le territoire survendu.

Niveau de résistance : 0,6465, 0,6600

Niveau de support : 0.6385, 0.6285

CL OIL, H4

Oil prices faced headwinds due to a grim economic outlook in China. As a crucial oil consumer, China’s lacklustre economic performance dimmed the appeal of the commodity. Nevertheless, supply-side factors lent support to prices, with substantial production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia bolstering oil’s resilience in the face of uncertainty.

Les prix du pétrole se négocient à la baisse alors qu'ils sont actuellement proches du niveau de support. Le MACD a montré une diminution de la dynamique haussière, tandis que le RSI est à 42, ce qui suggère que le produit de base pourrait étendre ses pertes après avoir cassé sous le niveau de support puisque le RSI reste en dessous de la ligne médiane.  

Niveau de résistance : 83,25, 87,25

Niveau de support : 79.00, 76.90