Dollar Pressured Ahead of PCE Data

 Key Takeaways:

*U.S. Core PCE Price Index (Due Today)

*Potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting next week

*Fed leadership speculation and Trump-Powell tensions

Market Summary:

The global market landscape shifted toward risk-on sentiment as diplomatic signals emerged from both Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he may meet with Iranian officials next week to reinforce the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. Echoing the shift, Iran’s mission to the United Nations stated that “the logic of war has failed—return to the logic of diplomacy,” signaling an openness to resume nuclear negotiations.

The prospect of de-escalation in the Middle East supported demand for high-beta assets such as the British pound, euro, and equities, while reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and gold.

Meanwhile, focus turns squarely to the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due later today. A softer print could increase odds of Fed rate cuts, exacerbating recent dollar weakness. Additional headwinds stem from rising political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell after President Trump hinted at replacing him before his term ends in 2026, increasing uncertainty over the future direction of monetary policy.

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Technical Analysis 

Dollar_Index, H4: 

The Dollar Index is hovering just above the key support level at 97.30 after a decisive break below 97.80 earlier this week. MACD continues to print bearish momentum, while RSI holds at 31, approaching oversold territory, suggesting a possible pause or short-term consolidation.

A confirmed break below 97.30 could open the door toward the next support zone around 96.50, particularly if today’s PCE reading surprises to the downside. However, if the index holds above 97.30, we may see a technical rebound back toward the 97.80–98.60 range.

Resistance Levels: 97.80, 98.60
Support Levels: 97.30, 96.50