Chart the Market (11/08/2025)

BTC, H4: 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has broken out strongly on the chart, surging to $121,805 which is piercing above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $121,678 and heading toward the 0.5 retracement at $124,400. This marks a decisive bullish move after a prolonged consolidation phase between roughly $118,305 and $115,100, with price breaking a descending resistance trendline.

The breakout is supported by rising volume, confirming strong buying interest. However, the RSI is currently at 79, deep in overbought territory, suggesting the rally could face short-term exhaustion or pullback risk. The MACD histogram is expanding sharply, and both MACD lines are accelerating upward, signaling strong bullish momentum.

Immediate resistance lies near $124,400, the 0.5 Fib retracement. If bulls sustain momentum and push beyond this, the next psychological target is $127,130 .On the downside, initial support is at $121,678 (broken Fib level), followed by $118,305 and the 50-period SMA near $117,600. A break below $117,600 would undermine the bullish structure and open the door toward $115,100.

Overall, the technical picture is strongly bullish in the near term, but the overbought RSI warns that price could either pause or retrace before any sustained move higher. This makes $121,678 a critical pivot to watch for confirmation of trend continuation.

Resistance Levels: 124,400.00, 127,130.00

Support Levels: 121,678.00, 118,305.00

DXY,  H4

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding just above the $98.05 level, currently trading near $98.30 after failing to sustain gains above the 50-period moving average. Price remains capped beneath the $98.60 resistance zone, with the prior breakdown from its ascending channel in early July still weighing on the broader technical picture. The $97.75 level is now acting as a key short-term support, with price action attempting to stabilize above it while consolidating within a tight range.

Momentum indicators reflect a cautious bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 40, holding above oversold territory but showing limited upward momentum, suggesting that the market is still lacking strong buying conviction. Meanwhile, the MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, with the histogram turning slightly positive shows an early signal that selling pressure may be easing, though confirmation is still pending.

A decisive close above $98.60  would be the first step in improving the short-term outlook, potentially opening the way for a test of the $99.25 resistance area, followed by the $100.15psychological level. On the downside, a break below $97.75 would expose the next supports at $97.10 and $96.50, with a move through these levels likely to shift the bias firmly back in favor of sellers.

Overall, while DXY is showing signs of stabilizing, the trend structure remains vulnerable below $98.60. Traders may look for a confirmed breakout above this barrier to consider long positions, while continued failure to reclaim it keeps the risk tilted toward another retest of the lower support band.

Resistance Levels: 98.60, 99.25

Support Levels: 97.75, 97.10