BTC Rises on Fiscal Fragility, Regulatory Tailwinds

 Key Takeaways:

*Bitcoin hits record $112,000 amid regulatory optimism and macro hedge demand.

*GENIUS Act passes House; Senate deliberations now key to policy clarity as markets turn watchful.

*Institutional inflows surge via ETFs and treasuries, while U.S. deficit fears and dollar softness boost BTC’s appeal.

Bitcoin extended gains to a record $112,000, underpinned by institutional inflows, mounting macroeconomic risks, and cautious regulatory optimism. The move marks a further shift in Bitcoin’s positioning—from speculative asset to structural portfolio hedge.

Institutional demand remains central. Strategy Inc. raised $2.1 billion via a preferred stock offering to expand its Bitcoin holdings, now totaling 576,230 BTC. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $8 billion in net inflows in the past month, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading volumes. Derivatives open interest surged, highlighting broader institutional exposure.

On the regulatory front, optimism is rising after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin oversight bill. While the legislation now faces deliberation in the Senate, the lower house approval has boosted sentiment. Markets will closely watch the upcoming Senate session, as progress there could solidify policy clarity and sustain the current rally.

Macroeconomic conditions remain supportive. Concerns over U.S. deficit expansion, soft Treasury demand, and dollar weakness are driving demand for non-traditional hedges. Bitcoin’s growing correlation with gold and reduced equity beta underscore its appeal as a defensive asset.

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD, H4

Bitcoin extended gains past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $111,900, reinforcing bullish momentum and signaling a potential run toward the next major resistance near $121,450 — the 78.6% retracement of the prior correction. The move caps a sustained recovery from March lows, underpinned by institutional flows and macro tailwinds.

Technical indicators support the upside case. The RSI has surged into overbought territory at 81, reflecting intense buying pressure and suggesting short-term overheating, though not yet signaling reversal. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains firmly positive and widening, with the MACD line accelerating above the signal line — indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

However, any signs of exhaustion could prompt a pullback toward $105,190 — the 50% retracement level — which now acts as initial support. Traders will monitor for consolidation or a volume-backed breakout to validate further upside.

Resistance Levels: 111,900,  121,450

Support Levels: 105,190, 98,480