Euro Rallies on Fed Cut Bets and Trade Optimism

 Key Takeaways:

*EUR climbed as dollar weakens on rising Fed rate cut bets

*U.S.-EU trade deal optimism lifts eurozone outlook, boosts risk appetite

*ECB seen cutting by year-end, but mixed data tempers near-term dovish shift

Market Summary:

The euro continued to climb toward multi-year highs, buoyed by a confluence of dollar softness and improving transatlantic trade sentiment. Investors rotated into the single currency amid mounting expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts following dovish congressional testimony by Chair Powell and a string of weaker U.S. inflation data. The resulting decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which fell to levels last seen in early 2022, provided a supportive backdrop for EUR/USD.

Trade dynamics also played a key role in lifting sentiment. Progress in U.S.-EU negotiations—centered around a potential 10% blanket tariff framework with carve-outs for strategic sectors—alleviated concerns over a renewed trade rift and opened the door to a more stable export environment for the eurozone. Parallel developments, including Washington’s de-escalation with China on critical minerals and Canada on digital tax disputes, further reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar and contributed to broader euro strength.

Domestically, however, the eurozone continues to send mixed economic signals. While inflation in Germany has eased to the European Central Bank’s 2% target, a larger-than-expected drop in retail sales suggests that consumer demand remains fragile. This complicates the ECB’s forward guidance as it attempts to balance credibility on inflation targeting with flexibility amid structural shifts in the global economy. Markets now lean toward a first rate cut by December, although ECB officials have yet to commit firmly to a timeline.

In the near term, the euro’s trajectory will depend on how firmly dovish the Fed turns, whether the U.S.-EU tariff deal is finalized before the July 9 deadline, and upcoming inflation prints on both sides of the Atlantic. While momentum favors continued euro appreciation, uncertainty around ECB policy, fragile growth in key eurozone economies, and unresolved geopolitical risks may limit the extent of the rally.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD, H4

The euro has extended its recent rally, climbing toward the 1.1839 resistance zone on solid bullish momentum. After breaking decisively above the 1.1690 ceiling, the pair has posted a series of higher highs and higher lows—confirming a short-term bullish trend structure and attracting fresh buying interest.

However, underlying indicators are flashing signs of caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, currently sitting near 68. While not yet extreme, it suggests that upside momentum may be losing steam and that a short-term pullback or consolidation could be on the horizon. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in bullish territory, with both the MACD and signal lines sloping upward. Still, the histogram has begun to flatten slightly, hinting at potential exhaustion in the current rally.

For now, EUR/USD remains in bullish control, but traders should monitor price behavior closely near 1.1839. A clear breakout could open the door toward 1.1908, while failure to sustain recent gains may trigger a pullback toward prior support at 1.1690.

Resistance Levels: 1.1839, 1.1908

Support Levels: 1.1690, 1.1490